Modo Energy's October 2026 GB solar forecast leaves merchant solar revenue almost unchanged. A standalone merchant site earns £44.6k/MWp a year on average from 2026 to 2050, 1.3% more than in the July 2026 release. Average power prices are lower, but solar earns a larger share of them, so its capture price barely changes.

The October forecast also has far fewer negative-price hours. That raises revenue for solar on a Contract for Difference (CfD), which pays nothing when the day-ahead price is negative.

Key takeaways

• Merchant solar revenue is flat. A standalone merchant site earns £44.6k/MWp a year on average from 2026 to 2050, against £44.0k in the July release.
• Solar capacity is 10 GW lower by 2050. The fleet reaches 78 GW, against 88 GW in the July release, with new utility build split between CfD AR8+ and merchant projects.
• Higher capture rates offset lower average prices. Average day-ahead prices are £4–7/MWh lower over 2035–2040, but the capture rate is up to 6pp higher, so solar capture prices match the July release.
• Negative-price hours fall. Modo Energy's fundamentals model now uses different bidding strategies for merchant and CfD renewable generators. CfD generators bid at £0/MWh, and merchant generators bid at the negative of their Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) price. GB negative-price hours stay below 250 a year from 2032.
• CfD solar revenue holds up through the contract. With fewer negative-price hours, a site on an Allocation Round 6 (AR6) CfD is paid for more of its output, and earns close to £70k/MWp a year until its contract ends in 2040.

Merchant solar revenue barely moves