Modo Energy's October 2026 GB forecast cuts average annual battery revenue by 1–4% against the July 2026 release. At a 10% discount rate, net present value (NPV) falls only 0.4% on average, with most of the difference in later years.

Higher gas forwards lift prices and spreads in 2026 and 2027. From 2028, prices fall below the July release. Through the 2030s and 2040s, slower demand growth keeps them lower and compresses spreads.

Key takeaways

• Near-term gains offset long-term losses, and NPV moves less than 2%. Average annual revenue falls 3.5% for 2h and 4h batteries and 2% for 8h. NPV moves by less than 2% in every case.
• Updated gas forwards lift near-term prices. NBP gas prices are £15/MWh higher in 2027. The 2027 day-ahead average price is £81/MWh, £10/MWh above the July release, and TB2 is £6,500/MW/year higher.
• Slower electrification cuts demand growth. Demand is 14% lower by 2050. Electrolyser demand growth is halved and other demand growth outside of heat pumps and EVs is cut by 20%. Prices are £5/MWh lower in 2040 and TB2 is £5,500/MW/year lower.
• Beyond known projects, the model decides the build, and builds less. Known wind and solar projects, including those that have secured subsidies, are fixed. After that, Modo Energy's capacity expansion model builds only where the system needs it, rather than following the July-26 set path. By 2050, offshore wind is 17 GW lower, solar 10 GW lower and hydrogen peakers 21 GW lower.
• Cheaper batteries favour longer durations. This release uses updated battery costs from Modo Energy's 2026 Capex survey. The fleet is 5.5 GW smaller in 2035, but passes the July release total by 2049, with the extra capacity in 8h batteries.

Near-term revenue gains offset long-term losses, so NPV holds