​The future of the ERCOT market is in an uncertain moment. Demand growth projections are moving every quarter. Market design is being rewritten in real time through the Batch Zero study process, the Dispatchable Reliability Reserve Service (DRRS), and Senate Bill 6 (SB6). The OBBBA has shifted the timelines of renewable capacity buildout. Even the gas supply side has a queue now, with gas turbine manufacturing slots sold out years ahead.

This release introduces four new scenarios alongside the Central Scenario to address that fundamental uncertainty. Each is an alternative worldview of ERCOT's future: the same model run with different fundamental input assumptions. Two of them bookend the battery revenue opportunity range: High Demand Growth on the upside and High Gas Buildout on the downside.

You can now select the scenario that best aligns with your internal view directly in the forecast tool. The Central Scenario remains Modo Energy's house view of the market. To learn how the scenarios differ, read the scenario documentation.

​Run the new scenarios in the terminal and ask Ko about them now:

​This article covers Modo Energy’s ERCOT fundamental market outlook through 2049, as of the Q2 2026 release. All values are in real 2025 dollars.

Modo Energy has assessed over 3.5 GW of battery projects globally, supporting $4 billion in investment decisions. Our U.S. advisory team is available for deal-specific support. For questions about this article or advisory inquiries, reach out to alejandro@modoenergy.com.

​Executive Summary