​With the 2026/27 T-1 Capacity Market auction taking place on the 3rd of March, qualified capacity is now confirmed and the key question is where the clearing price will land.

At 9.8 GW of de-rated qualified capacity against a target of 6.3 GW, this is the most oversupplied T-1 auction in years, pointing to a clearing price significantly below last year's £20/kW/yr.

Battery storage is entering the auction with a record 1.1 GW of de-rated capacity, continuing a sustained period of growth in the T-1.

Want the T-4 outlook? Read our breakdown of qualified capacity for the 2029/30 T-4 auction.

Excess qualified capacity points to a lower clearing price

The relationship across past auctions is consistent: the higher the excess qualified capacity, the lower the clearing price.