​NEM merchant utility-scale solar revenues reached $107.7k/MW/year in October 2026, up 2.6 times from September and the highest since December 2024.

Revenues increased in every state, with the largest gains in New South Wales and Queensland. Across the NEM, higher midday cooling demand and lower wind and solar generation tightened supply, lifting solar capture prices.

For more on Modo Energy's solar capture rate methodology, see our introductory explainer. You can also read our September solar revenue report and our coverage of October BESS revenues.

This report covers merchant revenues only, reflecting the underlying merchant market for solar. Most solar assets retain PPAs or LGC contracts that encourage negative bidding. Excluding negative dispatch, revenues were 3% higher, at $110k/MW/year.

Executive summary

• Midday operational demand rose in three states, while wind and solar generation dropped. Across the NEM, solar's capture price rose from $17/MWh to $47/MWh.
• Queensland had the largest increase in capture rate. Solar revenues rose 166% as midday demand rose by 1.3 GW for cooling and rooftop solar output fell.
• New South Wales led solar revenues. Lower wind generation and reduced solar output meant coal and gas set higher prices more frequently during midday hours.
• South Australia was the only state to see a decline in capture rate. Its midday demand fell 29%, increasing its surplus, and 59% of its solar was curtailed.

New South Wales led solar revenues as negative prices disappeared

New South Wales recorded the NEM's highest solar revenues in October, at $151k/MW/year, alongside a 50.5% capture rate.

Several factors contributed to the increase. Midday wind generation fell by 9%, while cloud cover and lower availability also reduced solar generation. As a result, gas generation supplied 8% of midday demand, up from just 2% in September, which pushed prices higher.

The New South Wales price event on 12 October provided a further boost. Cloud cover reduced solar output just as cooling demand ramped up, and the event accounted for 12.6% of the state's solar revenues for the month.

Queensland, meanwhile, recorded the largest month-on-month solar revenues increase in the NEM, at 166%. Midday demand rose by 1.3 GW as cooling load increased, while rooftop solar generation fell by 9%. Together, these changes lifted Queensland's capture rate by 21.2 percentage points, the largest increase of any state.

Victoria's solar revenues also doubled, supported by lower wind generation and higher demand.

South Australia, however, moved in the opposite direction. Although lower wind generation also contributed to higher prices, falling midday demand limited solar gains. Solar revenues rose by just 23% to $28k/MW/year, around a fifth of New South Wales' level. With 58.6% of available output curtailed, South Australia was also the only state where the capture rate declined.