​NEM battery revenues reversed the usual seasonal pattern in winter 2026 (April–September), falling below the previous summer’s six-month average (October–March). Revenues averaged $42k/MW/yr, 42% lower than in summer 2025–26.

In 2024 and 2025, winter heating demand and lower solar output made batteries more profitable than the preceding summer. This year, growth in grid-scale and household batteries outweighed that seasonal lift.

Revenues also fell 76% year on year (YoY). Fewer high-price events drove most of the decline. Earnings from prices above $300/MWh fell from $74k/MW/yr to just $2k/MW/yr, accounting for 55% of the total revenue drop. FCAS contributed another 34%, while earnings at prices below $300/MWh accounted for 11%.

For a comparison with the preceding summer, see our October 2025 to March 2026 review.

Executive Summary

• NEM battery revenues fell 76% year-on-year (YoY) to $42k/MW/yr, also down 42% from the previous summer.
• Battery saturation remains the main mechanism. Grid-scale capacity reached 8.8 GW, 2.6 times its level a year earlier. Home batteries also reached an estimated 8.8 GW, 4.6 times their previous level, reducing evening operational demand.
• Batteries set 65% of evening prices, up from 35% last winter. Discharge prices fell from $293 to $100/MWh, compressing spreads from the top.
• Warmer El Niño conditions and cheaper gas played smaller roles. Weather explains an estimated 1–5% of the revenue decline, while lower gas prices account for 2–4%.
• South Australia went from the NEM's highest earner to its lowest. Revenue fell 87%, from $243k to $32k/MW/yr as FCAS and volatility fell off.

Winter 2026 battery revenues lost on both volatility and everyday spreads

Every mainland state earned less than last winter. South Australia recorded the steepest fall, with revenues dropping 87% to $32k/MW/yr. New South Wales fell the least, but was still down 70% to $45k/MW/yr.

FCAS explains much of South Australia's decline. Batteries in the state earned $140k/MW/yr from FCAS last winter, compared with just $3.5k this winter.