Between July and September (inclusive), 290 MW of new battery energy storage capacity came online in Great Britain. Overall, that means that there are 3.1 GW of operational grid-scale batteries - larger than 7 MW - in Britain (as of the end of September).
Want to find out more about the batteries that did come online in Q3? Users with a Research Pro subscription (formerly Plus and Enterprise) can read our latest Deep Dive.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Britain increased its battery energy storage capacity by more than a gigawatt. It took two years for the previous gigawatt to come online.
This 290 MW of new Q3 capacity came from seven different projects - an average of two new grid-scale batteries per month. But, compared to the capacity that was due online, actual buildout has been slow.
When we looked at planned Q3 buildout back in July, we thought we might see around 500 -700 MW of new capacity - based on announced commissioning dates, and delayed projects from previous quarters.
However, for many battery energy storage asset owners and developers, the last quarter was a difficult one. A range of issues have resulted in less capacity coming online than expected.
Roadblocks in construction and commissioning are leading to delays
Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) companies help to manage battery energy storage projects - from the planning and construction stages, to bringing the asset online. In recent months, some EPCs have unfortunately ceased trading. Others have had to limit their services, due to difficult market conditions. As a result, some battery owners have had to re-contract the completion of their projects.
While far from ideal, particularly for those organizations that have sadly gone out of business, these are pretty exceptional circumstances. It won’t necessarily have longer-term ramifications for future battery energy storage buildout. If you are planning or developing a project, you can find our directory of battery energy storage EPCs in Great Britain here.
Elsewhere, some asset owners have reported issues with commissioning equipment. Where this equipment requires replacing, it can result in delays of up to two years - but this would appear to be a worst-case scenario.
And grid connection issues are continuing to cause problems - with some projects stalled at the network operator stage, despite physical construction being completed. There are also delays with the planning and progression of grid connections. These issues are affecting projects hoping to connect at both transmission and distribution levels.
National Grid ESO, Ofgem, and the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) have set out to tackle the long-term delays in grid connection completion. The final recommendations and implementation plan from National Grid ESO’s Connections Reform is expected in November this year. However, these changes are unlikely to be implemented before 2025. If you’re experiencing issues with grid connections that have already been agreed, please contact the Connections Reform team at box.connectionsreform@nationalgrideso.com.
Great Britain should hit around 3.6 GW of battery energy storage capacity by the end of 2023
Due to these ongoing issues, and the general slow-down in recent buildout, we have revised our buildout projection curve - down from around 4 GW by the of 2023, to approximately 3.6 GW. However, if we have another quarter like this one, that number will be even lower.
According to the most up-to-date commissioning dates for planned battery energy storage projects (as represented by the yellow bars shown above), we should comfortably surpass this. But further delays remain likely in the immediate term.
So, is this going to be enough capacity to keep up with grid requirements?
Delays in battery energy storage buildout could impact security of supply
Ultimately, delays to battery energy storage projects may well have impacts on the electricity system this winter (and beyond).
Winter Outlook 2023/24
National Grid ESO’s Winter Outlook for 2023/24 was based on 4.7 GW of battery storage being operational. Total battery energy storage capacity of 4.7 GW equates to 2.5 GW of de-rated battery energy storage. Taken alongside other generators on the system, this would give us a 4.4 GW national margin between total de-rated electricity generation capacity and demand.
However, current battery energy storage capacity only gives us a national margin of 3.6 GW. And, based on our best- and worst-case scenarios for Q4 battery buildout (i.e. new capacity that we expect to come online), National Grid ESO will be left with a de-rated national margin of around 3.7 GW this winter. This is 16% smaller than anticipated in the Winter Outlook.
Future Energy Scenarios
When we compared our previous buildout projection with National Grid ESO’s latest Future Energy Scenarios, we found that Britain was on track to meet two of these scenarios by the end of the year. Now, we are only on track for one.
Battery energy storage will be critical in allowing National Grid ESO to effectively manage the electricity system, particularly as more renewable (and intermittent) capacity comes online and traditional generation retires.
If battery capacity doesn’t hit the numbers laid out in the scenarios, it will ultimately impact security of supply and lead to increased costs for consumers. As such, it’s imperative that the issues currently affecting buildout are resolved - freeing up more of the planned capacity in the pipeline.
Want to find out more about the batteries that did come online in Q3? Users with a Research Pro subscription (formerly Plus and Enterprise) can read our latest Deep Dive.
Note: This article has been updated since publication to include the commercial operation of Bustleholme