Q3 of 2024 saw the highest buildout of 2024 so far. 259 MW of new-build battery energy storage began commercial operations in Great Britain.
This brought the total rated power of battery systems in Great Britain to 4.3 GW and total energy capacity in Great Britain to 5.8 GWh.
Main headlines from Q3 2024:
- 259 MW of new battery energy storage capacity began commercial operations in Great Britain. This is the highest of 2024 so far.
- The new capacity came from nine new battery energy storage systems.
- These systems ranged from 10 MW to 50 MW in rated power and 1 to 2.4 hours in duration.
- 4.3 GW of battery connection capacity has Capacity Market agreements beginning in October 2024.
- 1.4 GW of Capacity Market battery connection capacity for 2024/25 yet to begin commercial operations at the end of Q3.
- We project that 280 - 780 MW of new build capacity will become commercially operational in Q4.
Quarterly buildout picks up in Q3 2024
Following the new capacity beginning commercial operations in Q3 2024, total battery capacity in Great Britain now stands at 4.3 GW and 5.8 GWh. This means the average duration of batteries in Great Britain is 1.33 hours.
Throughout this article, there will be references to the battery energy storage ‘pipeline’ and buildout ‘projections.’
- Pipeline: The list of assets expected to be built in Great Britain. Each of these has an expected quarter in which it will become commercially operational.
- Projection: A calculation of how much capacity will likely come online based on the rate of new capacity installed in previous quarters.
Our Q2 2024 buildout report stated that 136 MW of new-build battery capacity began commercial operations within the quarter. This did not account for the 50 MW Roaring Hill battery from TagEnergy or the 50 MW Penwortham battery from Gresham House. Both of these batteries began operations within Q2. This means the total new capacity in Q2 2024 was 236 MW.
At 259 MW, Q3 2024 still saw the highest quarterly increase of 2024, with Q1 remaining the lowest since 2022.
Despite this, 2024 still lags behind 2023 in terms of quarterly buildout. The average quarterly buildout in 2023 was 416 MW per quarter. In 2024, it stands at 226 MW.
Inaugural batteries and co-located sites contribute to the new capacity in Q3 2024
Nine batteries began commercial operations between July and September 2024. Many owners saw their first battery come online within the quarter.
Eku Energy’s first battery is the 40 MW / 40 MWh Maldon. Ecotricity’s first site, the 10 MW / 24 MWh Alveston, began commercial operations. This site is also co-located with a 6.9 MW wind farm.
Capbal’s two-hour 10 MW site, Forfar, began operations. Finally, Schroders Greencoat bought the Tiln project from Light Source BP. The farm includes a 61 MW solar farm co-located with the two-hour 25 MW battery.
The remaining owners grew their existing portfolio with the new batteries operating in the quarter.
62% of the new battery capacity in Q3 2024 came from sites with a one-hour duration
2023 saw two-hour units make up the majority of new capacity in the last half of the year. In 2024, batteries with a two-hour duration have made up 40% of the new capacity online each quarter. In Q3, 38% of the new capacity operating came from batteries with a two-hour duration.
The Alveston site's nameplate duration is the highest of all the batteries that began operations within the quarter, at 2.4 hours.
Two-thirds of new batteries are not Balancing Mechanism registered in the Q3 2024 buildout
Three of the nine newly operational batteries in Q3 2024 are registered to the Balancing Mechanism. These are the 25 MW Tiln battery owned by Schroders Greencoat and operated by Flexitricity, RGREEN’s 20 MW Ernesettle Lane - operated by Centrica, and Harmony Energy’s 35 MW Rusholme - operated by Tesla.
So far Tiln has performed a strategy combining frequency response, wholesale trading, and the Balancing Mechanism. At the same time, Rusholme and Ernsettle Lane have been operating in the Balancing Mechanism and wholesale markets.
Balancing Mechanism registration (or non-registration) is not permanent. A battery not being registered to the Balancing Mechanism may be a temporary condition while it is being ramped up to full operation or completing the process of registration. Therefore we could see more of these batteries registered to the Balancing Mechanism in future.
Newly operational batteries in Q3 2024 generating revenue in the wholesale market
The Balancing Mechanism has become a significant proportion of the revenue stack for batteries. So far in 2024, it has made up 25% of monthly battery revenues from frequency response, wholesale trading, Balancing Mechanism and Reserve. In August, batteries earned their highest revenues yet in the service. In September, the Balancing Mechanism contributed to the single-highest revenue day for batteries since October 2023.
However, in Q3, just 31% of the newly operational capacity was Balancing Mechanism registered. This is a shift from the previous seven quarters where an average of 73% of capacity was Balancing Mechanism registered.
The batteries that are not Balancing Mechanism registered will likely perform a combination of wholesale trading and frequency response services, or just wholesale trading.
Scheduling issues, grid outages, and equipment issues lead to short-term delays in buildout
3.9 GW of batteries are delayed compared to reference dates from long-term contract start dates and press releases. (For more information on quantifying delays, see the methodology at the end of this article).
The ongoing grid connection queue issue has contributed to long-term delays. Some projects have expected connection dates as far out as the late 2030s. NESO has been consulting on solutions to the grid connection queue issue. Some reform work has already begun, with existing projects able to fast-track their connection dates. Other reform work could be in place in early 2025.
On the other hand, some short-term delays have been caused by DNO scheduling issues, grid outages, and equipment issues. These issues can delay operational dates by a few weeks or months.
2.8 GW of batteries could be delayed by over a year by the time they reach operational status. However, they may still be operational in time for long-term agreements such as the Capacity Market and stability pathfinders.
1.4 GW of battery connection capacity yet to come online for the 2024/25 Capacity Market delivery year
4.3 GW of battery energy storage capacity has contracts starting in the 2024/25 delivery year based on their connection capacity. At the start of Q3 1.6 GW was yet to begin commercial operation. By the end of Q3, 0.2 GW had begun commercial operations.
The connection capacity yet to come online equates to 0.3 GW of acquired capacity. This is 34% of the total acquired capacity from batteries in both auctions.
800 MW needed to take total capacity to 5 GW
Over 2 GW of battery projects have expected operational dates in Q4 2024. Based on historic buildout rates we project that between 280 - 780 MW of new-build battery capacity will begin commercial operation in Q4. The higher buildout rate would take total capacity in Great Britain to 5.1 GW by the end of 2024.
Several sites were commissioned or energized between Q3 and the start of Q4. For example, Harmony Energy’s Wormald Green and Hawthorn Pit were energized. Econergy’s Swangate became functional at the beginning of October. TagEnergy’s Lakeside battery was also energized in Q3.
Batteries above 100 MW will significantly increase buildout in Q4. Phase 1 of the 300 MW Blackhillock from Zenobe is due online within the quarter, and the 300 MW Thurrock battery from Statera has also shown signs that it could be online within Q4.
In 2023, Q4 had the highest buildout of the year. With the new Capacity Market year underway and an extensive pipeline, Q4 2024 could be the biggest quarter of 2024.
How do we quantify delays?
Modo Energy has provided our best view of delays in the pipeline.
Many asset owners and developers will provide expected buildout dates through press releases, their website, social media posts, or word of mouth. This is used as the reference buildout date. Where this information is unavailable, the reference buildout date refers to the start date of any Capacity Market, Pathfinder, or similar contracts the asset has.
If this date arrives and the asset is not yet commercially operational, the delay is the number of months between the reference date and any updated buildout date from the asset owner/developer. Where an update is not given, an asset will be assumed to be delayed into the next quarter. Some assets may not materialize after one quarter from the reference date and have no new known buildout date. At the end of each quarter, these assets will be grouped and will be distributed into future quarters based on the projection methodology.
Download the data behind the report
Modo Energy battery energy storage pipeline is available below.