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Australia NEM Forecast: July 2026 release

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Australia NEM Forecast: July 2026 release

​The July 2026 version of Modo Energy's battery energy storage revenue forecast for Australia's NEM is now live.

This is the biggest structural upgrade to the forecast since launch. The model now solves the NEM as a nodal network of over 200 nodes, rather than nine zones, so prices and battery revenues reflect where an asset actually connects.

Modo Energy forecast subscribers - create your own asset specific forecast now with the latest update.

View the changelog for a breakdown of everything that has changed in this release. To find out more about the forecast, check out our methodology or book in a demo.

Key updates:

  • Nodal price forecasting: the model now clears over 200 network nodes, capturing intra-state congestion and locational differences in battery revenues for the first time.
  • Inputs rebuilt on AEMO's 2026 ISP: near-term build costs rise, but projected large-scale solar capex falls 26% by 2035-36.
  • Gas futures down approximately $1/GJ in the near term.
  • Data-centre demand now follows Modo Energy's own forecast, growing from 5.5 TWh in 2026 to 36.8 TWh by 2050.
  • Household battery capacity is raised 59% by 2030, to 28.7 GWh, reflecting Modo Energy's updated consumer energy resources forecast.


Modelling changes

The forecast is now nodal

Previous releases modelled the NEM as nine zones. The July 2026 release solves a transmission network with over 200 nodes, with prices settled at each region's reference node: Sydney West, South Pine, Thomastown, Torrens Island, and George Town.

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Australia NEM Forecast: July 2026 release

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