Australia NEM BESS Forecast: April 2026 release
The April 2026 version of Modo Energy’s battery energy storage revenue forecast for Australia’s NEM is now live.
This release adds contracting strategies and custom scenario modelling to the forecast offering, alongside a broader refresh of the assumptions behind the revenue outlook. The model now uses a synthetic weather year and offers stochastic volatility modelling, and reflects updated gas and coal price assumptions, household battery uptake, and the near-term BESS pipeline.
Modo Energy forecast subscribers - create your own asset specific forecast now with the latest update.
Key updates:
- Contracting strategies: evaluate tolling, revenue swaps and CIS/LTESA contracts in the forecast terminal.
- Custom scenario modelling: build your own view of the future to run revenue forecasts against directly in the terminal.
- Synthetic weather year and stochastic volatility modelling: updated modelling captures a more representative central weather case and enables a us to provide a revenue distribution for each forecast year.
- Commodity prices: Newcastle coal prices up sharply between releases, lifting wholesale power price futures. Wallumbilla prices down slightly, reflecting capped LNG export capacity.
- CER forecast: Modo Energy’s household battery projection replaces ISP Step Change, nearly doubling by 2030.
- BESS pipeline: new CIS and LTESA statuses reflect government-backed project progression.
New features
Contracting strategies
The April 2026 release introduces contracting strategies, a new feature that lets users test the financial impact of different offtake structures directly in the forecast terminal.
Users can layer one or more contracting structures onto a merchant revenue forecast. The model returns two outputs. show the breakeven contract price discounted to present value. show revenue under a given contract price relative to merchant operation.
