​An unconstrained two-hour battery in Germany could have earned €205k/MW/yr in July 2026. That is down 8% from €224k/MW/yr in June. Fewer scarcity prices in aFRR capacity and day-ahead drove the fall. Revenues finished almost exactly where they sat a year ago, at €208k/MW/yr in July 2025.

The composition tells a different story. Wind generation rose 23% month-on-month, and solar added a further 4%. Net load fell below zero far more often. Evening scarcity, the force that lifted aFRR-up prices in June, did not return. So the optimiser moved capacity into FCR and day-ahead arbitrage instead.

Key takeaways

• An unconstrained two-hour battery could have earned €205k/MW/yr in July, down 8% on June and 1% below July 2025.
• aFRR capacity revenue fell €64k/MW/yr, as aFRR-up prices dropped 35% to €10.1/MW/h. This was by far the month's largest driver.
• FCR revenue more than doubled to €48k/MW/yr, the most in at least a year, even though FCR prices eased 10%. The optimiser reallocated capacity rather than chasing a higher price.
• Day-ahead revenue rose 70% to €47k/MW/yr. Energy trading now supplies a quarter of the stack, against 5% a year ago.
• Net load spent half as much time above 45GW, and 58% more time below zero, as wind returned and solar peaked.

Revenues receded to €205k/MW/yr as ancillaries contract

An unconstrained two-hour battery could have earned €205k/MW/yr in July. aFRR capacity remained the largest single stream at €107k/MW/yr, or 52% of the total. FCR contributed €48k, and energy trading across day-ahead and intraday added €50k.

A year ago the split was far narrower. In July 2025, aFRR capacity alone supplied 91% of revenue, and energy trading just 5%. aFRR prices have compressed since, as more batteries prequalify, and have begun to align more with day-ahead prices. FCR and energy have filled the gap, which is why the headline total has barely moved while the mix underneath has been rebuilt.

aFRR capacity revenues dropped by €64k/MW/yr, crowded out by FCR and day-ahead

aFRR capacity revenue fell €64k/MW/yr between June and July. aFRR energy shed a further €4k.

Three markets pushed the other way. FCR added €26k, and day-ahead added €19k. Intraday contributed €4k. Together they recovered roughly two-thirds of the aFRR loss, which is why the total fell 8% rather than 30%. The optimiser did not lose access to revenue; it relocated.

aFRR-up prices fell back to their spring floor from June’s peaks

aFRR-up capacity cleared at €10.1/MW/h in July, down 35% on June. That erased June's spike entirely, and returned prices to the €10 to €11 level that held from March through May. aFRR-down was steadier at €18.4/MW/h, up 2%.

FCR eased 10% to €21.8/MW/h. It is still the strongest of the three products, and it has now paid above €20/MW/h for four consecutive months. As recently as December, FCR cleared at €6.8/MW/h. As a symmetric product, the price has to be compared to aFRR up and down combined - but in many settlement periods, FCR won out over aFRR up and down and day-ahead energy arbitrage.